Three Main Things:
1. Widespread rain expected across Arkansas from Thursday night through early Saturday morning.
2. The main threat with this storm system appears to be heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Flash flooding threat is highest across the southeast half of the state.
3. A brief changeover to a wintry mix (light sleet or snow) is possible across northwest Arkansas Saturday morning. No significant accumulations expected.
Detailed Weather Briefing:
On Tuesday, widespread rain fell across Arkansas, parts of south and southeast Arkansas saw the heaviest rainfall from this event, and these locations picked up anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of rain (with isolated higher amounts) on average.
Another storm system appears to be on track to dump another round of heavy rainfall over Arkansas from Thursday night through Saturday morning. Once again, the southeastern half of the state is expected to pick up the heaviest rainfall where another 2-4 inches of rain may fall. The exact location for the heaviest rain will shift depending on the location of a stationary front during this time. However, we are confident that many areas that saw heavy rain on Tuesday will see more from Thursday night through Saturday morning. As a result, there is a chance for flash flooding across the southeastern half of the state. Localized flooding is expected to be the primary concern with this end of week storm system. Portions of Arkansas may be placed under a flash flood watch in later forecasts.
Before precipitation end on Saturday morning, temperatures may cool close to or just below freezing across the northwest parts of the state. If temperatures fall close to or below freezing before precipitation ends, there may be a brief change over from rain to freezing rain, sleet, or snow before dry air moves in and clears the precipitation out.
At this time, it looks like this window for frozen precipitation is small enough that no significant accumulations will occur. As a result, no significant impacts are expected from any brief change over to wintry precipitation Saturday morning. Any light accumulations are expected to melt quickly as highs on Saturday will climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
In summary:
Widespread rainfall is expected across Arkansas Thursday night through Saturday morning. Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding are the primary threats. The threat of severe storms appears to be low for now. The threat for wintry accumulations or impacts from those accumulations across northwest Arkansas Saturday morning is low.
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