A Flood Watch is now in effect for much of Arkansas. Rainfall will become widespread from west to east across the area later this evening through Thursday.
See the 7-day forecast below.
As the system moves through, excessive rainfall is possible, coming in from southeast Oklahoma, and across portions of western and northern Arkansas. This will result in increasing flash flooding potential. Area rivers and basins are also expected to see an increase in streamflow, with some locations possibly reaching flooding levels.
Additionally, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across mainly southern Arkansas Thursday afternoon and evening. The threat for hazardous weather is expected to come to an end by Friday morning as the storm system moves east of the state.
There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall across much of the state on Thursday. Excessive rainfall is defined as enough rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point. Despite the recent dry weather, the dormant state of vegetation this time of year will still yield an elevated vulnerability for flash flooding with excessive rainfall. Total rainfall amounts of greater than one inch are expected across the state through Friday morning.
The areas most favored for the greatest rainfall amounts continues to be portions of western, central, and then into northeast Arkansas. Local areas of rainfall totals above 3 inches are expected across the higher terrain regions, and may result in flash flooding. Rainfall amounts will generally taper off toward the southeast.
Higher confidence for these higher-end values lies across western, parts of central, extending into northeast Arkansas. The greatest probability for rainfall in excess of 3 inches currently lies across portions of western, central, & northeast Arkansas, and primarily over the high terrain regions. A large probability exists for much west, central, and northeast Arkansas to receive at least 2 inches of rainfall.
A conditional threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms is possible across southern Arkansas on Thursday. The primary threats for severe weather will include damaging wind gusts and hail. The main window for strong to severe thunderstorms will occur between Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening.
Severe weather ingredients including instability/shear will be greater just south of the state where the threat is expected to be higher. Ingredients for severe weather are expected to be greater across northern Louisiana Thursday afternoon.
7-Day Extended Forecast