According to the National Weather Service in Little Rock, there have been a few changes to the forecast over the past 8 hours, however heavy rain and damaging winds still appear to be the primary threats associated with storms moving across the state of Arkansas from Friday through Saturday morning.
Two to more than four inches of rain is expected, with the heaviest amounts over northern and central sections of the state. Given this much rain, flash flooding will be possible, and runoff could cause minor flooding issues along area rivers.
Severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) are most likely over southwest sections of the state, however a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will present a wind damage threat to most of the state of Arkansas Friday night through Saturday morning. Brief spin up tornadoes may be embedded within this line, and those brief tornadoes are more likely across the southwest and south central parts of the state.
One to two inches of snow could accumulate on grassy areas in far northwest Arkansas. Roads should remain wet, but icy patches may develop Saturday night as temperatures drop below freezing.
As far as the timing of this event, isolated strong to severe storms may develop across western Arkansas as soon as Friday afternoon. However, the main show will start as Friday evening approaches. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to pop up in parts of Oklahoma and Texas, and will sweep into western Arkansas organized into a big line of storms.
Thunderstorms will be widespread Friday night/early Saturday, and this is when the severe weather and flooding threats will be at their greatest. The strongest storms are expected to exit the state to the east around sunrise Saturday morning, and lingering rain showers will begin tapering off Saturday afternoon and evening, and this is when it will turn colder with snow possible in the northwest.
It will also be windy before storms arrive, and after they depart throughout the day on Saturday. Breezy southerly winds will kick up on Friday, and will shift to the northwest and remain gusty on Saturday. Peak wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be common across the state, with higher wind gusts possible in the Mississippi Delta area.
Please remember to have a plan in place to seek shelter from severe weather before you go to bed Friday night. Nighttime storms packing strong winds and isolated tornadoes are especially dangerous because they are more likely to catch people off guard. Make sure you have a way to receive warnings; something that will wake you up if a dangerous storm approaches your location.
AS OF THURSDAY, JANUARY 9TH AT 4:30 A.M., THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR UNTIL JANUARY 11TH AT 6:00 A.M.
FLASH FLOODING IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AREAS FOR THIS WATCH ARE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS, CONWAY, FAULKNER, GARLAND, GRANT, PERRY, POPE, PULASKI, SALINE, WHITE, AND YELL. IN EASTERN ARKANSAS, LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH. IN NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS, BAXTER, BOONE, CLEBURNE, FULTON, INDEPENDENCE, IZARD, MARION, NEWTON, SEARCY, SHARP, STONE, AND VAN BUREN. IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, CLARK, DALLAS, HOT SPRING, OUACHITA, AND PIKE. IN WESTERN ARKANSAS, JOHNSON, LOGAN, MONTGOMERY, POLK, AND SCOTT.
FROM LATE THURSDAY UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AS A STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. INITIALLY, STORMS
MAY SIT FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS BEFORE
FINALLY HEADING TO THE EAST. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR TWO TO MORE
THAN THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN THE WATCH AREA.
SINCE VEGETATION IS DORMANT, AND NOT CONSUMING MUCH GROUND
WATER, RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN WILL BE INCREASED. THIS ELEVATES THE CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING. ALSO, RAPID RISES MAY OCCUR ON CREEKS, SMALL STREAMS, AND FLASHY RIVERS.